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Chapter 12： The Specter of Stagflation ＇6：34＇
第十二章：滞胀幽灵
Onscreen title： Austria； 1970
字幕标题：奥地利，1970年
NARRATOR： When Hayek moved back to his native Austria； he was depressed。 The success of mixed economies made his free…market theories； and Hayek himself； seem more irrelevant than ever。
旁白：哈耶克回到他的祖国奥地利的时候，他非常沮丧。混合经济的成功使他的自由市场理论，以及他自己，看起来比以往更加落后于潮流。
LAURENCE HAYEK； Hayek's Son： The world was very much a socialist world。 His ideas were not fashionable。 Nobody seemed to listen to him。 Nobody seemed to agree with him。 He was alone。
LAURENCE HAYEK，哈耶克的儿子：世界是社会主义者的世界。他的观点不时髦了。似乎没人听他的，似乎也没人同意他的观点。他是孤独的。
NARRATOR： Hayek found his ideas shunned by the academic world。
旁白：哈耶克发现学术界在故意回避他的观点。
FRIEDRICH VON HAYEK （interviewed in 1978）： Most of the departments came to dislike me； so much so that I can feel it to the present day； ＇and＇ economists very largely tend to treat me as an outsider。
哈耶克（1978年的采访）：很多部门嫌恶我；他们如此不喜欢我以至于直到今天我仍能感觉到那种厌恶。经济学家们则往往在很大程度上把我视为局外人。
NARRATOR： He was living in a provincial town and stuck in a rut。 But the outside world was beginning to change。 Skimming the newspaper in his usual restaurant； Hayek read how inflation and unemployment were rising at the same time。 There was a new word to describe it： "；stagflation。"；
旁白：他在一个地方城镇中生活，固守成规。但是外面的世界正开始发生变化。哈耶克在他常去的饭馆里浏览报纸时看到通货膨胀和失业同时上升。有一个新词用来形容这种情况，那就是“滞胀”。
Onscreen title： USA； 1971
字幕标题：USA，1971年
NARRATOR： After 30 glorious years of growth； the American economy was in trouble。
旁白：经过三十年的高速增长，美国经济陷入了困境。
GEORGE SHULTZ： The economy basically was kind of going nowhere and had inflation； which didn't seem to get cured …… kind of a malaise in the economy。
GEORGE SHULTZ：经济基本上无路可走，还有通货膨胀，这看起来是难以克服的－经济出了些问题。
MILTON FRIEDMAN： Stagflation was the end of naive Keynesianism。 You had two things at the same time； which under the Keynesian view would have been impossible。 You had stagnation in the economy； high level of unemployment。 You had inflation； with prices rising rapidly。
弗里德曼：滞胀是天真的凯恩斯主义的终结。两件事同时发生，而这在凯恩斯主义者看来是不能的。经济中出现滞胀－高失业率和通货膨胀同时存在。
NARRATOR： President Nixon looked like a Chicago economist's dream e true。 Milton Friedman was a special advisor； and George Shultz was in charge of the budget。
旁白：尼克松总统好像要使芝加哥学派经济学家的梦想成真。Milton Friedman是专门顾问，George Shultz则负责预算问题。
GEORGE SHULTZ： So I think going back to your ment about the wholesale price index a moment ago； one of the areas where prices were going up very rapidly was lumber and other materials associated with home…building。
GEORGE SHULTZ：因此我想要回到你稍早之前对 批发价格指数的评论上来。价格迅速上升的领域之一是木材和其他与家庭盖房有关的材料。
NARRATOR： But the president wasn't listening。 He tried to spend his way out of trouble。 To add insult to injury； he declared； "；Now I am a Keynesian。"；
旁白：但是总统没有听他们的意见。他设法用自己的方式来摆脱困境。更令他们觉得侮辱的是，总统宣称：“现在我是凯恩斯主义者。”
DANIEL YERGIN： This declaration by Nixon horrified his conservative supporters。 Indeed； one congressman wrote to him and said； "；Mr。 President； I'm going to have to burn all of my old speeches。"； Nixon wrote back and said； "；I will； too。"；
丹尼尔。尤金：尼克松如此宣称令他的保守派支持者觉得震惊。事实上，一位国会议员给他写信说：“总统先生，我将不得不收回我以前所有的讲话。”而尼克松回信到：“我也是。”
NARRATOR： Nixon decided he hadn't gone far enough； so he took his top economic advisors off to Camp David for a working weekend。 Ben Stein； the quiz…show host； was a junior speechwriter in the White House； and his father was at the meeting。
旁白：尼克松认为自己走得还不够远，于是他在一个周末带上自己的顶级经济顾问们到戴维营开会。Ben Stein是白宫的高级演讲稿撰写人，他的父亲也参加了会议。
BEN STEIN； Host； Win Ben Stein's Money： Here's my father； walking into the president's cabin to meet Mr。 Nixon； and there's George Shultz right behind him。 I'm not sure； but I think it's a fair bet that at any one of these meetings they're plaining about something being wrong； probably talking about prices and stagflation。 I'm not sure。
BEN STEIN，主持人，Win Ben Stein's Money：这是我父亲，他步行到总统度假处来与尼克松先生见面，尼克松先生的右后方是Geroge Shultz。我不确定，但是我想这是一次公平的赌博。
NARRATOR： Dick Cheney was a young aide at the time。
旁白：Dick Cheney那时是一个年轻的助手。
RICHARD CHENEY： I always remember the debate we had during the Nixon administration when the public was convinced that food prices were going up。 So the political debate was whether or not we should impose a freeze on food prices。
RICHARD CHENEY：我一直记得我们在尼克松班子里进行的那次辩论，当时公众确信食品价格将上涨。所以政治辩论集中于我们是否应该冻结食品价格。
NARRATOR： The supposedly conservative Republican Nixon opted for wage and price controls。
旁白：据推测是保守的共和党人的尼克松选择了工资和价格管制。
BEN STEIN： Nixon was a great one for doing something； I think in retrospect we now know that it would have been better to do nothing； but he was in favor of doing something。
BEN STEIN：尼克松因为做了而成为伟人。我想我们今天回顾起来会发现如果什么都不作情况本来应该更好一些，但是他赞同作些什么。
GEORGE SHULTZ： I was there； and I opposed them。 Wage and price controls； you could see analytically； would get you in a lot of trouble。
GEORGE SHULTZ：我当时在那里，而且我反对他们。你分析一下就会明白工资和价格管制将使你陷入困境。
RICHARD NIXON； ； 1969…1974： The time has e for a new economic policy for the United States。 Its targets are unemployment； inflation。
尼克松，美国总统，1969－1974年：对美国来说，是实行新经济政策的时候了。目标就是对付失业和通货膨胀。
RICHARD CHENEY： At one point President Nixon spoke up and quoted Nikita Khrushchev； and he said； "；Khrushchev once told me that sometimes in order to be a statesman； you have to be a politician for a while。"；
RICHARD CHENEY：尼克松总统大胆提到和引用了赫鲁晓夫的话，他所“赫鲁晓夫曾经告诉我有时候为了作一名政治家，你不得不暂时作一下政客。”
MILTON FRIEDMAN： The problem with him was that he was willing to sacrifice principles too easily for political advantage。
弗里德曼：他的问题是他愿意为了政治利益而如此轻易地牺牲原则。
NARRATOR： The voters liked the president's war on prices。 Nixon was reelected in a landslide。 The economy did less well。
旁白：选民赞同总统对价格的管制。尼克松以绝对优势连任总统。经济情况有所恶化。
DANIEL YERGIN： Right away the economy went out of whack。 People couldn't cover their costs。 Ranchers stopped sending cattle to market； farmers started drowning their chickens。 Instead of controlling inflation； they were creatin